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Predictors of Youth Radicalization: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Sarah Jahnke, University of Bergen; Katharina Abad Borger, University of Trier; Andreas Beelmann, University of Jena

The present meta-analyses review the international evidence base regarding links between psychologically meaningful risk factors and political violence outcomes (attitudes, intentions, and actual behavior) among adolescents and young adults. Based on an extensive database search with more than 4000 hits, as well as reference and citation searches, we synthesized 422 effect sizes for push- pull- and vulnerability factors (review 1, 95 samples, 23 countries), and 285 effect sizes for family and social factors (review 2, 44 samples, 14 countries). For review 1, we detected significant effects for depression (r .07); empathy (r -.16), aggression (r .24), identification (r .21), relative group deprivation (r .19), realistic threat (r .30), symbolic threat (r .28), negative intergroup emotions (r .25), experiences of discrimination (r .11), dissatisfaction with the police, political actors and institutions (r .11), and negative attitudes towards democracy (r .17). No significant effect was found for self-esteem, intolerance of uncertainty, narcissism, and exposure to intergroup conflict. For review 2, we detected significant effects for familial support (r -.09), parental control (r -.06), parental violence (r .08), friends with racist of violent attitudes (r .26), membership in political group (r .27), school attachment (r -.12), school achievement (r -.06), and socioeconomic status (r -.04). We detected no significant effects for familial conflict, importance of family, friends with racist or violent attitudes, and general membership in peer groups. The reviewed longitudinal and intervention studies mostly confirmed these cross-sectional results.

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