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Conspiracy believers as lone wolves? People who believe in conspiracies feel lonelier on average, but loneliness and conspiracy mentality do not influence each other over time.

Tisa Bertlich, University of Mainz; Anne-Kathrin Bräscher, University of Mainz; Sylvan Germer, University of Mainz; Michael Witthöft, University of Mainz; Roland Imhoff, University of Mainz

Feeling connected to other people is an important human need. When this need is frustrated, conspiracy beliefs might become more appealing because they offer spaces to exchange ideas with like-minded people as well as community events, such as demonstrations, to meet up face to face. At the same time, believing in conspiracies might further frustrate this need by negatively affecting relationships with people who are skeptical of conspiracy beliefs. Recent studies find initial evidence for an association between frustrated social needs and conspiracy beliefs. However, most of this research is correlational. Therefore, the direction of the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and social motives remains unclear. We conducted a longitudinal study with three waves (N 1604) to investigate whether loneliness and conspiracy mentality have a reciprocal influence on each other. The data collection took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, a time when social needs were highly frustrated by social distancing measures and lockdowns. Using a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model, we found that people who, on average, scored higher on loneliness, also scored higher on conspiracy mentality. However, we did not find evidence that loneliness and conspiracy mentality influence each other over time. We conclude that loneliness and conspiracy mentality do not have a direct causal influence on each other. The relationship might depend on other factors, such as whether people feel connected to a conspiracy community, as mentioned elsewhere. However, it is possible that the special circumstances during the COVID-19 pandemic might have covered up the relationship between conspiracy mentality and loneliness, as socially well-connected people might have scored high on loneliness scores. The research at hand helps to gain a deeper understanding of what does and does not motivate people to believe in conspiracy theories.

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